From Baku to Belém: What’s next in COP30?

COP29 finally wrapped up in the early morning on Nov 24, after running 33 hours over time and a walkout by climate-vulnerable countries that threatened to scuttle negotiations.[1]Developed countries promised to triple global climate financing to US$300 billion a year.

India’s negotiator objected to the US$300 billion pledge, calling it a ‘paltry sum’ (Image source: AFP)

While the agreement acknowledges that developing countries, particularly the least developed and small island developing countries, are especially impacted by climate change,[2] the funding level is a far cry from the US$1.3 trillion that was asked for. This deal sends a dubious message as richer countries tell their developing counterparts to not tap into fossil fuel resources, yet failing to direct adequate financial resources to support the transition. In the end, the text called for a concerted effort from public and private sources to raise US$1.3 trillion a year by 2035, which could be facilitated with the now-endorsed global carbon market framework.[3]

Zhao Yingmin, head of the Chinese delegation at COP29 and Vice Minister of Ecology and Environment, emphasized in his speech at the closing plenary that the financial commitments outlined in the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) outcome document fell far short of meeting the needs of developing countries. He called for developed countries to further clarify their financial obligations, uphold the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities", provide the necessary support, and assist developing countries in effectively responding to the climate crisis.[4]

Baku has been rife with drama from the get go. The COP29 chief executive was filmed promoting fossil fuel deals;[5]and the host country’s president praised oil and gas as a ‘gift from God’ in his keynote speech.[6] The Vatican, along with Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, and Egypt, blocked talks on addressing gender equality[7]—when 70-80% of people displaced by climate change are women.

Perhaps emboldened by Trump’s victory in the US, Saudi Arabia has been working hard to derail climate talks in a blatant and unprecedented manner, including backtracking on commitments made at Dubai last year. The oil nation was also accused of making direct changes to the official COP29 negotiating text, bypassing usual procedures.[8]

With COP29 ending on a disappointing note, Brazil has much to do to repair confidence when it hosts the next climate summit in Belém. Its biggest task will be to ensure the world is on track to achieve the 1.5°C target, as countries have to update their five-year nationally determined contributions for 2025. The latest UNEP Emissions Gap Report shows that current commitments would put us on path to 2.6-2.8°C, overshooting even the original Paris Agreement target of 2°C.[9]

Reaching the 1.5°C pathway requires cutting emissions by 42% by 2030 (Image source: UNEP)

Hong Kong is also far from fulfilling its responsibilities toward the Paris Agreement goals, by failing to facilitate renewable energy development at a greater scale. The switch to natural gas for electricity generation only provides temporary reprieve without truly decarbonising the city’s largest source of carbon emission in the long run. As a leading international financial centre, Hong Kong has a critical role to play in channelling international capital toward high-quality environmental projects, actively driving the green economy transition both regionally and internationally.

In an open letter during the climate summit, twenty former leaders and climate experts have warned that the current COP structure is no longer fit for purpose and in need of an overhaul to deliver change at the speed and scale needed to tackle climate change.[10]With developed countries shirking their responsibilities and oil states openly obstructing climate progress, maybe they are right.