香港地球之友綠色金融顧問 Michele Leung / Green Finance Advisor of Friends of the Earth (HK)
《巴黎協定》旨在通過將全球氣溫上升幅度控制在工業革命前水平以上、低於攝氏2度之內，來加強全球對氣候變化威脅的關注。為了達成《巴黎協定》的目標，多個國家開始實施相應政策，以減少碳排放量並逐漸轉變為低碳經濟國家。
雖然重工業現時佔全球溫室氣體排放量一大部分，但是歸根究底金融機構對於這一個過渡正扮演著非常重要的角色，因為他們透過借貸或投資，間接增加碳排放，他們必須為這類氣體排放範圍3(其他溫室氣體排放)負上責任。
令人鼓舞的是，現在愈來愈多金融機構開始評估自家的碳足跡。通過計算投資或貸款賬簿的碳披露量和強度，企業能夠建立一套客觀標準。在了解過自己的投資組合水平後，企業將能制訂他們的削減目標或攝氏2度政策。
儘管計算碳足跡是最基本的步驟，但如沒有根據氣候相關財務披露工作小組（TCFD）的指引並結合前瞻性數據和情景分析，氣候分析便無法完成。
例如，其中最主要的過渡風險為與投資收益緊密相連的碳定價。普遍共識下，直至2030年，碳價預計將增長7-10倍，達到每噸價120美元水平，此升幅尤其重要。碳價上漲將影響企業當前收益，另也一併計算入調整後的EBITA和導致EBITA利率下降。之後，金融機構將通過研究不同的氣候情景和期限來對潛在影響進行壓力測試。
另一方面，自然風險也是對金融機構迫在眉睫的威脅。他們的投資或抵押貸款、甚至抵押簿或位處於容易發生自然災害的地區，這些地區將因氣候變化而蒙受巨大損失。現在不同的風險指標（例如洪水、乾旱、山火等）皆可在地圖上以非常精細的空間解像度顯示，這樣，這些風險便可在資產級別或公司級別量化。
隨著氣候風險轉化為重大的金融風險，金融機構再不應忽視氣候變化，而應開始衡量和評估其投資組合的氣候風險。
The Paris Agreement aims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. In order to reach the goal of Paris agreement, many countries have launched initiatives that targets to lower carbon emission and transform into low carbon economy.
Though heavy industries account for a substantial portion of global greenhouse gas emissions. Financial institutions also play a very important role in this transition as they are responsible for the financed emissions, either through their lending or investments, which is also considered as scope 3 emission.
It is encouraging to see more financial institutions start to evaluate their carbon footprints. By measuring the carbon exposures and intensities of their investments or loan books, they are able to establish a baseline. After knowing where their portfolios stand, they would set up reduction targets or formulate their two degree policies.
While carbon footprinting is a fundamental step, the climate analysis won’t be complete without incorporating forward looking data and scenario analysis, as guided by Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD).
For example, one of the key transition risks is carbon pricing risk and it is strongly tied to the earnings of investments made. According to general consensus, the carbon price is expected to increase 7-10 folds to USD $120/ton by 2030, which represents a very significant increment from now. The increase in carbon price would impact companies’ current earnings and be priced in as the adjusted EBITA and reduction in EBITA margin. Financial institutions would then stress test the potential impacts by looking into different climate scenarios and tenors.
On the other hand, physical risk is also an imminent threat to financial institutions. Their investments or collaterals for loans or even mortgage books would be located in physical risk prone areas that would suffer in great loss from the climate change. Different hazard indicators (i.e. flooding, drought, wildfire etc.) can now be mapped to the asset locations to a very granular spatial resolution, such the physical risk can be quantified on either asset level or company level.
As climate risks translate into material financial risks, financial institutions should not ignore the climate change, they should start to measure and asses the climate risks of their portfolios.
