Idea Exchange – Karen Ho / 意見交流園地 – Karen Ho
It’s unbelievable to see what have happened in the world in the last 2 months. “Working from home’ and ‘social distancing’ become the new norm and we all have to embrace the new way of life. What wake you up during the night? Are you worried about being one of the “confirmed case”? Are you concerned about the impact to your business and job security? Are you scrambling to see the arrival of a bear market with your investment and currency being devalued?
With all those worries in your mind, is or should “Sustainability” become a lower priority?
Perhaps we can try different angle to rethink what we can learn from the Coronavirus Pandemic. Yes – many businesses are impacted, but which industries or companies are least impacted and actually could potentially benefit? Which companies or projects or sectors are more resilient to the disruptions to our economy?
What is obvious is that there would be a long-lasting effect on tourism and oil consumption. Both oil & gas and travel & leisure shares have been hammered in the last 2 months. The aerospace sector has also had a tough time. The crisis has also pushed investors toward defensive stocks or investments. This pandemic is proving the importance of pharmaceutical, health care, food and household goods. A sustainable business and investment are what we should focus now.
Who would have guessed, 2020 started with such a disastrous and painful experience to many of us?
“This is teaching all of us lessons about what it really means to stress test and model extreme scenarios,” said Emilie Mazzacurati, founder of Moody’s unit Four Twenty Seven Inc., a physical climate risk data firm. “We need to be able to think and stretch our imagination beyond what we have seen historically—in this case things that were unthinkable a few weeks ago, such as airlines shutting down and not driving, are now in place.”
全球於過去兩個月裏發生的事，真是令人難以置信。「在家工作」和「社交疏遠」成為新的社會規範，我們所有人都必須接受新的生活方式。晚上睡覺時甚麼把你弄醒了？你擔心會成為「確診案例」之一嗎？你是否擔心疫情對業務和職業安全的影響？看到熊市的到來，你會否為你的投資和貨幣貶值狀況而焦急起來？
在這些擔憂下，「可持續性」應該繼續被視為次要事項嗎？
也許我們可以嘗試以不同的角度重新思考人類從冠狀病毒大流行中可學到的知識。是的，很多企業受到影響，但是哪些行業或公司受到的影響最小、或實際上可能受益了？哪些公司、項目或行業在經濟衰退時更具彈性？
最顯而易見會受到長期影響的，便是旅遊業和石油消費。石油和天然氣、以及旅遊和休閒股在過去兩個月中均表現欠佳，航空太空業也度過了艱難的時期，這場危機還迫使投資者轉向支持防禦性股票或投資。另外，這場大流行亦證明了製藥、醫療保健、食品及家庭用品的重要性，我們現在最需要重點關注的是可持續的商業和投資。
誰曾想過，2020年剛開始，便為我們帶來如此災難性和痛苦的經歷？
穆迪（Moody）旗下、實體氣候風險資料公司Four Twenty Seven Inc.的創始人Emilie Mazzacurati表示：「（此次危機）正正給予我們學習的機會，了解進行壓力測試和模擬極端情況是怎樣一回事。」「我們需要有能力超越過去的歷史經驗，思考並擴大我們的想像力，幾周前我們無法預料的事情，例如航空公司關閉和停止運作現在已出現了。」
