Green Finance Advisor of Friends of the Earth (HK)
The heat we are having since late April is suggesting that Hong Kong will have a very hot summer. Regardless of the sceptics and denials of climate science by some people, our personal experience easily confirmed that the change of climate is true without doubt. In Hong Kong, the number of very hot days and very hot nights are trending up while the number of cold days is trending down.[1] The pace of the change, which has accelerated in the past few years, is most worrying. That being said, as United States – the world’s second largest carbon emitter – returned to the Paris climate accord, we see more hope now for faster, tighter global coordination to tackle climate change. More importantly, the new US administration under Biden has some promises for greening its energy and transportation in the proposed US$2 trillion infrastructure bill.
However, it is never easy to gain bipartisan support for new bills and other measures for mitigating climate change. This is particularly true under the political influence of the oil and gas industry, which has been reluctant to decarbonize. Noticeably, fossil fuel combustion accounts for 75% of the US greenhouse gas emission and oil and gas contributes 69% of the country’s energy source. Given the firm economic and political bonding between the oil and gas industry and the country, the Biden administration needs exceptionally strong willpower and bold moves to advance climate change agenda.
According to the latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world does not need any new development of oil and gas fields in 2021 and beyond on our 2050 net-zero pathway. Between 2020 and 2050, oil and gas demand will fall 75% and 55% respectively. The supply of oil and gas by 2050 will come only from a small group of low-cost producers. OPEC has the clear cost advantage and is expected to supply more than half of world’s oil by 2050, higher than its 34% market share for 2020. While some of the existing US oil and gas companies could survive, we expect a lot more will be closed, transformed or bankrupted. Based on this analysis, all oil and gas companies should consider seriously their future under the 2050 net zero scenario and adopt dramatic changes to their operation and business model.
We are glad to see commitments from the like of BP, which announced plan to cut production and transform its business to more clean-energy aligned. However, these plans are rare in the oil and gas industry. More companies have set targets of reducing emission intensity but not their total emission. Some companies such as ExxonMobil and Chevron are still considering new oil and gas projects and plan to increase production in the medium term. These oil and gas companies, which are in slow motion to climate change or have the “business as usual” mentality, will not only be self-destructing and but also result in significant cost to the future of human. Noticeably, a 2019 report showed that fossil fuel industry misled Americans about climate change.[2] Another report published on 13 May 2021 indicated how oil companies used language to make people blame themselves for climate change[3]. Now is time for the authorities of the US and other countries to hold oil and gas companies accountable for their costs to climate.
[1] The Year’s Weather – 2020, Hong Kong Observatory, https://www.hko.gov.hk/en/wxinfo/pastwx/2020/ywx2020.htm
[2]America Misled: How the fossil fuel industry deliberately misled Americans about climate change, https://www.climatechangecommunication.org/america-misled
[3] Rhetoric and frame analysis of ExxonMobil’s climate change communications, https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(21)00233-5
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從四月下旬以來的我們所感受到溫度來看，估計明香港將有一個非常酷熱的夏天。 儘管有人對氣候科學表示懷疑和否認，但從我們的親身經歷可以證實氣候變化是毋庸置疑。 在香港，酷熱的日子和酷炎的夜晚數量呈上升趨勢，而寒冷的日子則呈下降趨勢。[1] 最令人擔憂的是這一變化在過去幾年正在加速。話雖如此，隨著美國（世界第二大碳排放國）重返巴黎氣候協定，我們相信全球協調來應對氣候變化將比以往來的更有希望。 更重要的是，在拜登領導下的美國新政府在擬議的2萬億美元基礎設施法案中，看到對綠化能源和交通運輸有一定的承諾。
但是，要獲得共和兩黨對新法案和其他緩解氣候變化措施的共同支持，絕非易事。 在不願脫碳的石油和天然氣行業的政治影響下，尤其如此。 值得注意的是，化石燃料燃燒佔美國溫室氣體排放量的75%，而石油和天然氣提供該國69%的能源。 鑑於石油和天然氣行業與國家之間牢固的經濟和政治聯繫，拜登政府需要非凡的意志力和大膽的舉措來推進氣候變化議程。
根據國際能源署（IEA）的最新報告，在2050年實現零排放的路上，2021年及以後世界根本不需要任何新的油氣田開發。 從2020年到2050年，石油和天然氣需求將分別下降75%和55%。 到2050年，石油和天然氣的供應僅來自一小部分低成本生產商。油組（OPEC）具有明顯的成本優勢，預計到2050年將供應全球一半以上的石油，高於2020年其34％的市場份額。儘管一些現有的美國石油和天然氣公司可以生存，但我們預計更多的公司將結業，轉性或破產。基於此分析，所有石油和天然氣公司都應認真考慮其在2050年零排放的前情景下的未來，並對其運營和商業模式做出重大改變。
我們很高興看到BP等公司宣佈了減產計畫並將其業務往清潔能源方向轉型。 但是，這類型的計劃在石油和天然氣行業中屬於小數。更多的公司只設定了降低排放強度但不降低總排放量的目標。埃克森美孚和雪佛龍等一些公司仍在考慮新的石油和天然氣項目，並計劃在中期增加產量。石油和天然氣公司在應對氣候變化問題上步履遲緩，或者俱有「一切照舊」的心態。這樣下去這些公司不僅會自我毀滅，還會給人類的未來造成巨大的損失。 值得注意的是，2019年的一份報告顯示，化石燃料行業在氣候變化方面誤導了美國人。[2] 2021年5月13日發布的另一份報告指出，石油公司如何利用語言使人們為氣候變化而自責。[3] 現在是時候美國和其他國家/地區的監管機構要求石油和天然氣公司對氣候變化承擔責任。
[1] The Year’s Weather – 2020, Hong Kong Observatory, https://www.hko.gov.hk/en/wxinfo/pastwx/2020/ywx2020.htm
[2] America Misled: How the fossil fuel industry deliberately misled Americans about climate change, https://www.climatechangecommunication.org/america-misled/
[3] Rhetoric and frame analysis of ExxonMobil’s climate change communications, https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(21)00233-5
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